In Part 1 of my 2010 Asia Cup preview, I covered India, the team in transition, and Bangladesh, who will look to prove their worth against their subcontinent neighbors. In Part 2, we'll look at Sri Lanka, the host team of this year's Asia Cup, and Pakistan, a team who are their own worst enemy.
Sri Lanka - of the four teams taking part in this year's Asia Cup, Sri Lanka go in the most prepared. While they had a mediocre Twenty20 World Cup campaign, their performances in the Micromax Cup will help them carry some momentum to the bigger challenges they face in the Asia Cup. Tillekeratne Dilshan rediscovered his form, and has generally thrived on the slower surfaces of the Asian subcontinent. The biggest story is the exclusion of Sanath Jayasuria and Ajantha Mendis, part of the aggressive new selection policy. Neither comes as a big surprise - Jayasuria's slide has been painfully obvious for far too long, and while Mendis enjoyed success in Zimbabwe, he has lost much of the aura that propelled him into the international scene. It's ironic, because it was a century from Jayasuria and a mesmerizing spell of 6/13 from Mendis that won Sri Lanka the final of the 2008 edition of the Asia Cup. While Mendis is by no means out of the picture, youngsters like Suraj Randiv and Jeevan Mendis will be eager to prove their worth after good performances in the Twenty20 World Cup and the Micromax Cup.
Pakistan - I wrote before that the only time Pakistan do well is when they face adversity of some kind. It happened in the 1992 World Cup, it happened in the 2009 Twenty20 World Cup, and it almost happened again in the 2010 Twenty20 World Cup. Shahid Afridi now leads a team putting itself together after multiple suspensions, life bans and fines were overturned, and with injury- and controversy-prone Shoaib Akhtar back in the squad. Akhtar's presence can be a double-edged sword for Pakistan - he hasn't played competitive cricket in a long time, and there's enough infighting in the Pakistan team as it is, but he can be an absolutely lethal fast bowler. It's in circumstances like these, when Pakistan have their backs to the wall, that they perform the strongest. It's led them to world cup victories in 1992 and 2009, and almost saw them through to the finals in 2010. Going into the Asia Cup, and with the 2011 World Cup on the horizon, Pakistan's preparation has been anything but focused, but that's never stopped them before.
So when it comes down to the bottom line, I'm going to put money on an India-Sri Lanka final; after that, it's anyone's guess. Sri Lanka have had India's number in the recent past, but India have enjoyed consistent success against Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka, both in bilateral and multi-nation tournaments. Bangladesh performed as well as they could have hoped for in England, but whether they can win consistently enough to make it to the finals is unlikely. Pakistan remain the perennial wild card, the dark horse that can go all the way if they don't spectacularly combust first. They face hosts Sri Lanka in the first game of the tournament that will reveal a lot about what we can expect - Akhtar's fitness, Pakistan's cohesiveness, Dilshan's form, and the bowler-friendly Dambulla wicket. Who knows, it might be as interesting as North Korea going up against Brazil tomorrow.