It hasn't been a good couple of years for Pakistan: following the terrorist attacks in March of last year, teams didn't dare tour their country anymore; this year, the team was dramatically purged following a winless tour of Australia. But it's in moments of such adversity that Pakistan have shone the brightest: after their international isolation, they rose like a phoenix (or a cornered tiger) to win the 2009 World Cup, and after poor preparation and a rough start to the tournament, they're in the semi-finals of the 2010 tournament. The only problem is their opponent - not only have Australia already beaten them once in this World Cup, but Australia have easily beaten every other team they've faced.
Australia might feel relatively confident with their semi-final spot, having comfortably won every game they played. However, Twenty20 is an unpredictable format, and Pakistan are an unpredictable team. Australia will be only too aware that they were pipped at the post by India in the 2007 World Twenty20, and that Pakistan overcame a poor start in the 2009 World Cup to defeat both the unbeaten teams of the tournament in the semi-finals and the finals. Restricting David Warner and Shane Watson will take a lot of work, and the Hussey brothers, Cameron White, Brad Haddin and Michael Clarke make up the strongest middle order of the tournament. Dirk Nannes, Mitchell Johnson and Shaun Tait might trouble the Pakistanis with their pace and bouncers, but the slow St. Lucia pitch might - just might - negate them. In that case, Steve Smith, Man of the Match against the West Indies, will be in business.
Pakistan know they have history and fortune on their side against a powerful Australian side. Their batting has not clicked this tournament - their highest score (both team and individual) has come against Bangladesh. Salman Butt has stood out with 73 against Bangladesh and 67* against New Zealand, but has received precious little support from his teammates. Umar Akmal has only had one game to be proud of, his 51 condemning South Africa to elimination, and Shahid Afridi is yet to fire - similar to the 2009 World Cup, where he peaked in the semi-finals and the finals to lead his team to victory. Mohammed Aamer has impressed with the ball, but on the slow surface of St. Lucia, Afridi and Saeed Ajmal will present problems to the Australians. Lurking in the shadows is Abdul Razzaq, who can single-handedly change games with his batting and his bowling.
A year ago, no one gave a stuttering Pakistani team any chance of beating the dominating South Africa and moving to the finals of the World Cup, but that's exactly what happened. Pakistan are a team that can lose a game on their best day, but with their backs to the wall, they can win a World Cup - and that's what they will take with them into their semi-final with Australia. For their part, Australia don't suffer from the same stage fright that afflicts South Africa at crucial moments, but this is also a new-look squad that is still shrugging off the "transitional" tag from the 1999-2007 era. The two times Australia were pressured in this tournament (against Bangladesh and Sri Lanka), they bounced back to win, first comfortably, and then ruthlessly. As unpredictable as Pakistan are (the phrase "cornered tigers" comes to mind), I don't think they have what it takes to overcome this Australian squad, who manhandled India, dismantled the West Indies and swept aside Sri Lanka. I call Australia, making it an England-Australia final. And we all know who'll win that.